The hottest paper industry will be fully taxed, an

2022-08-12
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The paper industry was fully taxed, and the RMB exchange rate fell sharply! Papermaking costs will rise significantly

from September 1, the United States plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on 300billion us Chinese goods. After the additional tariff, China will fully cover the paper industry exported to the United States

domestic demand is further slowing down, and the export situation is uncertain. The paper market is facing more challenges in the second half of 2019

since September 1, the United States has imposed tariffs on 300billion goods, and the RMB exchange rate has fallen below 7

for some time, the United States has "changed its face" frequently on 300billion Chinese goods exported to the United States, and used this as a means to "put extreme pressure" on Sino US trade negotiations

US President trump announced on twitter on the afternoon of August 1, us time, the day after the conclusion of the 12th round of trade negotiations between the two sides, that he would implement the 300 billion goods list plus tariff list with a tax rate of 10% from September 1; The 25% surcharge of US $250billion that has been implemented will continue to be implemented

since the next round of high-level consultations between China and the United States is in September, it seems that a 10% tax increase on this 300billion goods is almost inevitable. By then, the United States will impose tariffs on products totaling $524.9 billion, which has reached 97% of the total value of U.S. imports from China in 2018

affected by this, the RMB exchange rate has once again reached the critical point of "breaking 7". At about 9:16 a.m. on August 5, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the United States fell below the "7" threshold, and at 9:33, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the United States "broke through 7"

the RMB exchange rate has fallen by 4% since hitting a high of US $6.6862 in February! The US Treasury Department has officially listed China as a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994

CCTV immediately accepted an interview after "breaking 7", saying that at present, the RMB exchange rate may depreciate or appreciate. Two-way floating is normal, and it is difficult for not only enterprises, but also more professional financial institutions to predict the trend of the exchange rate. In particular, it reminds enterprises to focus on physical business and not to spend too much energy on judging or speculating on exchange rate trends

On August 6, the people's Bank of China decided to issue two offshore RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on August 14, with a total issuance of 30billion. After the news was released, the RMB exchange rate at home and abroad quickly stabilized and rebounded

what is the impact of the falling exchange rate and the imposition of tariffs on the paper industry

affected by the decline of the RMB exchange rate, Hong Kong stocks, such as the market paper stocks, fell sharply on August 5. According to Wande data, as of the close, Liwen paper fell 4.88%, sunshine paper fell 3.54%, Nine Dragons Paper fell 3.31%, Chenming paper fell 3.26%, and senxin paper group fell 2.27%

analysts said that as half of the pulp and waste paper used by Chinese paper enterprises come from overseas, affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the prices of imported pulp and waste paper and other raw materials will rise significantly, which will directly increase the cost of the paper industry, resulting in pressure on profits

for the new round of additional taxes, according to the "green building action plan" issued by China, we put the project in this place. Some analysts believe that this has little impact on the direct export of pulp and paper. In 2018, China exported to the United States: about 14000 tons of household paper, accounting for 1.4% of the total demand, about 19000 tons of cultural paper and 14000 tons of packaging paper, accounting for less than 0.1% of the total demand for cultural paper and packaging paper. However, the imposition of tariffs may indirectly affect the demand for packaging paper

changes in import and export taxes related to papermaking

1. Among the 300 billion U.S. goods with a weight of no more than 60 tons, the items related to light industry and papermaking are mainly 96, 49 and 48. The remaining items except the part of the previous levy, and the related products include finished paper processed products such as printed products (such as books, paintings, etc.), sanitary products (such as sanitary napkins, diapers), which are downstream additional products. After the increase, China's tariffs on paper and pulp products exported to the United States have been comprehensively increased, and China has not yet introduced anti tax items. According to the following analysis framework, the additional tariff has little impact on the export of light industry and paper industry

2. Finished paper end: mainly to meet domestic demand, with little impact from trade; Raw materials have little dependence on imports from the United States and are highly replaceable; The imposition of tariffs has the greatest impact on packaging paper enterprises and the least impact on cultural paper enterprises. In 2018, China exported to the United States: about 14000 tons of household paper, accounting for 1.4% of the total demand; about 19000 tons of cultural paper and 14000 tons of packaging paper, respectively, accounting for less than 0.1% of the total demand for cultural paper and packaging paper. The imposition of tariffs has little direct impact on the export of finished paper, but may indirectly affect the demand for packaging paper

3. Raw material side: wood pulp is less dependent on the United States, and tariffs do not affect the willingness to buy American wood pulp. At the same time, the global supply of wood pulp is sufficient, and the alternative sources of raw materials are very wide; The import volume of waste paper is mainly affected by quotas. The tax increase will bring a small amount of import structure changes, but it will not affect the price of national waste. There is basically no export demand for raw materials

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