The hottest paper industry shares dividends and lo

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We expect that pulp and paper prices will remain low in 2012. In this context, our strategy in 2012 is to find industries and companies that can obtain cost dividends and have deterministic returns. We are optimistic about the downstream demand is stable, the impact of economic fluctuations is small, and the price is stable or sticky, such as tobacco packaging, ticket printing, household paper and decorative base paper in the paper industry

industry view

pulp price will show an L-shaped trend: our judgment on the price of wood pulp in the Chinese market in the next few years:

2011qq1 fluctuated and fell, building a bottom; 2012qq3 began to rebound, but the range was not high; During 2012q, the global pulp market was continuously suppressed by new production capacity, and prices were difficult to perform well

the paper boom is difficult to improve, and the paper price will remain low in the fields of machinery, transportation, textile, papermaking, mining, agriculture, chemical industry and sports equipment: in 2012, the paper supply pressure depends on the masks. You may not know much about the difference between masks? However, it is very large, and the demand growth rate is likely to be lower than that in 2011 due to the slowdown of domestic economic growth. It is expected that the boom of the whole industry will be difficult to improve, the paper price will remain low, and the change of the industry boom is mainly driven by external policies

tobacco packaging: stable demand growth with event driven. The demand of the tobacco packaging industry is very stable, and it is less affected by economic fluctuations. The paper holding power will not disappear, and the price decline will benefit. Moreover, the government has been actively promoting the adjustment of the tobacco industrial structure in recent years. We believe that the adjustment of the tobacco industrial structure is expected to promote the growth of domestic medium and high-end cigarettes by 8%-10%. In addition, we expect that the speed of asset integration of tobacco enterprises will accelerate, which will bring greater opportunities to cigarette label production and packaging enterprises

financial IC card acceleration. We expect that EMV migration will be carried out in an all-round way in China, and China's financial IC card market will show explosive growth in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2014, the annual shipment of financial IC cards in China will reach 335million, with a compound annual growth of 76%; The annual sales volume will reach 3.5 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth of 56%. At the same time, the acceleration of the issuance process of social security financial cards will benefit the entire social security financial card industry chain. With the joint promotion of the central bank and the social security department, it will effectively overcome the slow migration process of EMV previously dominated by the financial system. According to the government's plan, it will reach 800million by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, and the market capacity will increase by more than three times, which will bring greater opportunities to domestic bank cards, social security card manufacturing and printing enterprises

risk prompt

economic fluctuation risk; Market competition risk; Business development risk

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