The hottest paper industry policy points out the d

2022-08-22
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Paper industry: the policy points out the direction (Part 1)

key points of investment

the paper industry has been developing at a growth rate higher than GDP in recent years, and continued the trend of rapid development in 2007. The profitability, fixed asset investment and prosperity of the industry all show an increasing trend, and the industry will gradually enter the boom cycle

with the development of science and technology, the policy support is obvious, and the leading enterprises benefit. The national energy conservation and emission reduction policy has promoted the concentration of the paper industry; The industrial development policy points out the development direction of the industry and favors the policies of leading enterprises; The key points of forestry industrial policy are also beneficial to paper-making enterprises with forestry paper integration projects to a certain extent

the import and export situation of 2006 continued in 2007: the import of pulp continued to grow, while the import of paper and paperboard decreased and the export increased, but China's paper exports will face the risk of trade protectionism. The benefits of RMB appreciation to the paper industry outweigh the disadvantages, but with the gradual increase of China's paper exports, the benefits of RMB appreciation to the paper industry will gradually shrink

the price trends of raw materials are different. In 2008, due to the centralized release of new production capacity, the price of wood pulp is expected to decline; Due to the slowdown of supply growth and strong demand, the price of waste paper will show an upward trend in 2008

most paper markets have recovered. In 2008, the market situation of cultural paper and white cardboard was still good; Although the supply of paper and coated paper still exceeds the demand, the degree will be eased; Due to the centralized release of production capacity, supply exceeds demand, and the industry reshuffle may begin

we believe that in the current economic environment, the paper industry will become a better defensive sector. We give the investment rating of the industry in line with the big market, and suggest paying attention to leading enterprises with forest paper integration projects, good product market conditions and capacity expansion

risk tip: the improvement of environmental protection requirements will increase the production cost of the whole industry and reduce the gross profit margin of the industry; Raw material prices are still high; In the future, the centralized release of production capacity will impact the paper market; The forestry paper integration project has large investment and long effective cycle, which cannot improve the recent performance of most enterprises. At the same time, due to the large investment, it will reduce the return on capital of most enterprises in the short term

1. The overall operation of the paper industry is in good condition

1.1 the industry has recovered, and the overall performance has increased rapidly

1.1.1 the production and consumption of the paper industry has increased rapidly

since 2002, the paper industry has been developing at a growth rate higher than GDP, and the compound growth rate of annual production and consumption of the paper industry has exceeded 10%, mainly due to the rapid growth of the national economy and the increasing improvement of people's living standards

in September 2007, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard of paper-making enterprises above the national scale was 6.9089 million tons, an increase of 20.70% year-on-year, an increase from 18.30% in the same period last year; The monthly cumulative output was 56.8874 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.90%, which was significantly lower than that of 22.50% in the same period last year. The main reasons are:

1) the state vigorously promotes energy conservation and emission reduction policies, and shuts down and eliminates a large number of small and medium-sized production capacity

2) the paper and coated paper market has been oversupplied in 2006, with fierce competition, and the operating rate has decreased, resulting in a decline in output this year

3) the construction cycle of the paper industry is generally months, and 2006 is the centralized release period of the industry's production capacity, while the overall new production increase of the industry in 2007 is not much

the slowdown of overall output growth will help improve market supply and demand, raise paper prices, and improve the profitability of large enterprises

1.1.2 improvement of the overall profitability of the industry

in 2006, the overall profitability of the paper industry has been improved to a certain extent, and the gross profit margin of the industry has gradually rebounded; In addition, the growth rate of industry profits is faster than that of sales revenue, which improves the overall business quality of the industry. The state has forced the closure of many small and medium-sized paper mills, prompting the recovery of the gross profit level of large paper companies

it is worth noting that the overall cost rate of the industry fell to 7.25% from 8.08% in the same period last year, making the growth rate of the total profit of the industry higher than the growth rate of the industry's sales revenue, and the profit margin also increased by 0.71 percentage points year-on-year

1.1.3 the growth rate of fixed asset investment rebounded structurally

the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the paper industry in 2006 was only 16.93%, which was significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of about 33% in 2004 and 2005. The main reason is that the construction cycle of the paper industry is generally months. The fixed asset investment in previous years was put into operation successively in 2006, and the capacity release is relatively concentrated, resulting in oversupply of several types of products, mainly paper and coated paper, weakening product prices and declining industry prosperity

in the first three quarters of 2007, the growth of fixed asset investment in China's paper industry rebounded significantly, with a cumulative completion of 55.740 billion yuan, an increase of 28.30% year-on-year. The main reasons are: first, the price of raw materials continues to rise. In order to strengthen the control of raw materials, paper enterprises successively invested in the construction of forest paper integration projects in 2007; Second, due to factors such as eliminating backward production capacity and changing production, the supply and demand situation of the paper market has improved, and the prosperity of the industry has rebounded

1.1.4 the boom of the industry rebounded significantly

from the perspective of the boom of the industry, we can clearly see that the boom of the papermaking and paper products industry fell significantly in the second half of 2006. The soaring prices of wood pulp and waste paper led to the rise of the cost of the whole industry, and the decline of gross profit margin was the main reason. In 2007, because the price rise of wood pulp and waste paper was less than that in 2006, and the situation of oversupply in the paper market improved, the prosperity of the papermaking and paper products industry has rebounded significantly

in general, the paper industry is entering a new boom cycle. With the gradual deepening of China's forestry paper integration project and national waste collection, the control of raw materials for the largest short board in China's paper industry will be greatly improved, and the industry is expected to continue to maintain a high speed of development in the later stage

2. Obvious policy support, leading enterprises benefit

2.1 energy conservation and emission reduction: the paper industry determines the schedule for eliminating the scale and quantity of backward production capacity

in June 2007, the State Council formulated the "comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction", which clearly put forward the detailed goal of eliminating backward production capacity during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period for the first time. Among them, the paper industry will close the production capacity of nearly 6.5 million tons during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, of which about 2.3 million tons will be closed in 2007. The eliminated backward production capacity mainly includes straw pulp production units with an annual output of less than 34000 tons, chemical pulp production lines with an annual output of less than 17000 tons, and paper mills with an annual output of less than 10000 tons and waste paper as raw materials whose emissions are not up to standard

the elimination of backward production capacity not only reduces the pollution emissions of the industry, but also helps to improve the industrial concentration of China's paper industry, laying the foundation for leading enterprises to become bigger and stronger

2.2 the paper industry development policy points out the development direction

the paper industry development policy provides a more detailed description of the policy objectives, industrial layout, raw material structure, product structure, technology and equipment, organizational structure, industry access, investment and financing, resource conservation, environmental protection and other aspects. The purpose of its introduction is to improve the development environment of the paper industry, build a combination of forestry and paper industry, and promote the sustainable development of the paper industry

The introduction of the policy will have a significant impact on the development of the paper industry in the following aspects:

(1) moderately control the construction of paper and paperboard projects. By 2010, the new capacity of paper and paperboard will be 26.5 million tons, the existing backward capacity will be eliminated by 6.5 million tons, and the effective capacity will reach 90million tons. This means that the average annual growth rate of production capacity is about 8%, slightly lower than the average annual growth rate of GDP. This plan is in line with the law of the development of China's paper industry and can basically ensure the supply and demand balance of the paper industry in the future

(2) industrial integration and market access. The industrial policy clearly points out that domestic enterprises should be supported to develop large pulp and paper enterprises with international competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions, reorganization and other forms. In terms of market access, the construction and expansion of a single production line of pulp and paper projects should meet the requirements of the initial scale. (the reconstruction of tissue paper, special paper and paperboard projects and existing production lines are not limited by the scale access conditions)

(3) the industrial layout is adjusted from north to south. The south of the Yangtze River is a key area for the development of the paper industry. We should focus on the construction of the forest paper integration project and speed up the development of the pulp and paper industry. The north of the Yangtze River is the area where the paper industry is optimized and adjusted, focusing on adjusting the raw material structure, reducing the number of enterprises and improving the industrial concentration

(4) wood fiber and waste paper are the main raw materials. By 2010, the structure of wood pulp, waste pulp and non wood pulp will reach 26%, 56% and 18%, and strive to achieve the goal of building a paper forest base of 5million hectares and adding 6.45 million tons of wood pulp production capacity. At the same time, the export of wood chips, wood pulp and non wood pulp will be restricted, and export tariffs will be levied on the basis of the abolition of export tax rebates

(5) avoid industrial monopoly. If the domestic market share of a single paper type of a single enterprise (Group) exceeds 35%, it is not allowed to apply for approval or record the paper type construction project; The total production capacity of paper and paperboard of a single enterprise (Group) exceeds 20% of the total consumption of the domestic market in that year, and it is not allowed to apply for approval or record pulp and paper projects

the promulgation of the paper industry development policy points out the direction for the development of the paper industry. First, it will promote the paper industry to improve the control of raw materials, reduce the external dependence of raw materials, and promote industrial upgrading; Secondly, it will promote the paper industry to improve the industrial layout and structure, speed up industrial integration, improve industrial concentration, and support the mergers and acquisitions of leading enterprises; Finally, it will promote the paper industry to reduce the consumption and pollution of energy and water resources in the industry

2.3 "key points of forestry industrial policy" to promote the development of the paper industry

at the national forestry industry work conference, seven ministries and commissions formulated the "key points of forestry industrial policy", implemented active support policies, and vigorously promoted the development of the forestry industry

the basic principle of the new forestry policy is to adhere to diversified investment, raise funds through multiple channels, break the restrictions of departments, regions and ownership, vigorously develop non-public forestry, and form a new pattern of multi-level and diversified joint development of forestry industry

as the main downstream industry of forestry, the paper industry will also benefit from a series of supportive policies introduced this time. First, forestry will enjoy preferential tax policies, and the income from forestry projects will be exempted or reduced from enterprise income tax; Secondly, the government requires policy banks to appropriately extend the term of forestry loans, and relax the loan period for fast-growing and high-yield timber forests and industrial raw material forest base construction projects to years; Thirdly, actively promote the circulation of forest, forest and forest land use rights; Finally, the government will increase interest subsidy support for the forestry industry and give loans at interest discounts

we believe that the policy will not change the fundamentals of Listed Companies in the paper industry in the short term, but in the long run, paper companies with forest pulp paper integration projects will directly benefit. At the same time, with the gradual liberalization of the circulation of forest rights, more and more paper-making enterprises are expected to gradually establish their own forest pulp paper integration project (1) computers are the core control goal of the whole device, and the overall competitiveness of the industry is expected to be greatly improved

3. Import and export: benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and facing trade protectionism sanctions

3.1 the export of the industry increased significantly and the import decreased

the situation of China's paper industry import and export in 2006 was that the export increased significantly and the import decreased, but with

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