The hottest PTA futures price is weak, and the fut

2022-09-21
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PTA futures prices are weak, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the future

pta futures price is weak, and it is difficult to be optimistic in the future

May 24, 2019

core view

at this stage, the negative effect of PX forward discount on PTA price has been fully fermented in the previous market

in general, although the PTA futures price has been adjusted recently and is close to the low at the beginning of the year, the terminal inventory has accumulated significantly, and gradually the upstream polyester and PTA are transmitted. The terminal inventory pressure has led to a significant decline in polyester production and sales, and the polyester end may face the downward pressure of construction in the future, and the demand for PTA may decline

recently, PTA's main futures price has continued to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price is basically consistent with the low level at the beginning of this year. This paper tries to make a brief analysis of PTA's futures price from a fundamental point of view, and then click on the reset potential. Download app to read this article's more in-depth report

recently, the main price of PTA has continued to fluctuate weakly, and the price of PTA is basically consistent with the low level at the beginning of this year. This paper tries to make a brief analysis of the trend of PTA price from the perspective of fundamentals. The shear strength value is the value of stress/shear area

the spot price of PTA fell rapidly in May, and the futures were weak

the spot price of PTA fell rapidly since May. On May 21, the transaction price of PTA spot market was about yuan/ton, while at the end of April, the spot price was around yuan/ton, and the spot market fell about 600 yuan

pta futures contract was weak. On May 21, the closing price of ta1909 contract was 5588 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton or 6.68% from the closing price of 5988 yuan/ton on April 30. The biggest one-day decline in the 09 contract occurred on May 14, with a decline of 3.67% on the same day

in terms of basis, the 09 contract basis continued to rise in April to mid May. With the rapid decline of the futures market on May 14, the basis of the main contract was about 1000 yuan; Subsequently, the basis of 09 contract fell rapidly, and the current basis is about 400 yuan

px is put into production, which is bad. PTA price support processing fee

the decline of the difference between PX and naphtha oil price began in early March this year. The theoretical price difference between PX and naphtha was $595/ton on March 6, and the price difference between PX and naphtha was about $288/ton on May 21, with a decline of $307/ton. The corresponding PTA processing fee increased from 990 yuan/ton at the beginning of March to about 1500 yuan/ton at present

on May 17, Hengli announced that its 20million ton/year refining and chemical integration project was fully put into operation, and its 4.5 million ton/year PX production capacity significantly increased the self-sufficiency rate of domestic Px, gradually shifting the high profits of PX to PTA. With the production of Hengli PX unit, the price difference between PX and naphtha has narrowed to below the historical average in recent years

reviewing the forward price of PX, on May 21, the difference between the CFR China quotation in June and that in July was only $3/ton. After July, the monthly price difference of CFR China quotation was basically $2 to $3, while at the end of April, the CFR China quotation in April was about $70/ton compared with that in May. Pay attention to bulk internal references, and don't miss every wonderful article

looking back, PX shoes and insoles are washable prices. On May 21, the difference between the CFR China quotation in June and that in July is only $3/ton. After July, the monthly price difference of CFR China quotation is basically $2 to $3, while at the end of April, the CFR China quotation in April and that in May are about $70/ton. Pay attention to bulk internal references, and don't miss every wonderful article

it can be seen that the high discount pricing of Yuanyue PX in the market has been basically completed before Henglida refining and chemical unit is put into operation, while the subsequent launch of more new PX capacity remains to be completed

at this stage, the negative effect of PX forward discount on PTA price has been fully fermented in the previous market

the terminal raw material inventory is high, and the inventory pressure is transmitted to the upstream.

the high inventory of terminal grey fabric restricts the terminal's purchase of polyester, and restricts the production and sales of polyester factories at the same time. According to the data of grey cloth inventory days in Shengze, the grey cloth inventory in the first quarter of this year was still at a relatively low level in recent years, but the grey cloth inventory days continued to rebound after late March, and now it is at a relatively high level since 2013

Li Weiming: PTA futures prices are weak, and it is difficult to be optimistic in the future| Market interpretation

the high inventory of grey fabric at the terminal restricts the purchase of polyester by the terminal and the production and sales of polyester factories. According to the data of grey cloth inventory days in Shengze, the grey cloth inventory in the first quarter of this year was still at a relatively low level in recent years, but the grey cloth inventory days continued to rebound after late March, and now it is at a relatively high level since 2013

the inventory days of polyester filament, staple fiber and chip began to rebound at the end of March or early April respectively, and almost all varieties have reached the high level of inventory days in recent years. The rebound of PTA inventory days data is basically the same as the upward time of polyester inventory days. If the terminal woven fabric inventory continues to accumulate, it will inevitably form greater cumulative pressure on polyester and PTA inventory

polyester cash flow is compressed, PTA processing fees may be affected

since late April, the cash flow of polyester filament and bottle chips has been significantly compressed, and the high start-up of polyester end and the start-up of terminal weaving are less than expected, forming a sharp contrast between the two. Under the pressure of high inventory, the lower than expected terminal demand will further compress the cash flow of polyester end, and the recent commencement of polyester end has shown signs of decline

since the first ten days of May, many polyester factories have announced maintenance plans. The absolute high operation of PTA preliminary processing fees and the inventory pressure of polyester and terminals provide reasons for the market to short PTA processing profits, but PTA factories also have receiving measures. Although the PTA processing fee fell sharply after May 14, the current PTA theoretical processing fee is still about 1500 yuan/ton. With the news of Sichuan Shengda driving and discharging, the PTA processing fee may be further compressed

Li Weiming: PTA futures prices are weak, and it is difficult to be optimistic in the future| Market interpretation

since the first ten days of May, many polyester factories have announced maintenance plans. The absolute high operation of PTA preliminary processing fees and the inventory pressure of polyester and terminals provide reasons for the market to short PTA processing profits, but PTA factories also have receiving measures. Although the PTA processing fee fell sharply after May 14, the current PTA theoretical processing fee is still about 1500 yuan/ton. With the news of Sichuan Shengda driving and discharging, the PTA processing fee may be further compressed

in general, although the PTA futures price has been adjusted recently and is close to the low at the beginning of the year, the terminal inventory has accumulated significantly, and gradually the upstream polyester and PTA are transmitted. The terminal inventory pressure has led to a significant decline in polyester production and sales, and the polyester end may face the downward pressure of construction in the future, and the demand for PTA may decline. The launch of PX new capacity weakens the absolute price of PTA, while the processing profit rises. From the perspective of PX forward price, PX may not have a great impact on the absolute price of PTA in the near future, but the relatively high PTA processing profit may still be compressed. In addition, the recent capacity investment of Sichuan Shengda may have a short impact on the PTA futures price. The upgrading of the Sino US trade war will affect the export demand of terminal textiles and clothing in the medium and long term, and the high inventory of terminal grey fabric will be eliminated at a worrying speed

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