The hottest PTA depth callback waits for downstrea

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PTA deep callback waiting for the downstream recovery

entering September, PTA prices continued the downward trend in July and August, and the 0811 contract fell all the way to 7900 yuan/ton from 8380 yuan/ton on September 1. The weekly decline was more than 5.7%. Although the PTA price has fallen a lot at present, the market buying is still insufficient, and the spot offer has also begun to decline - after the modest replenishment of the low position in the early stage and the implementation of the PTA contract goods in August, there are relatively few substantive purchases of polyester factories in the PTA spot market. At the same time, the positioning of the spot and contract prices of PX in September is erratic, so some shipholders began to increase the intensity of shipment, making the price focus fall again and again

it is worth mentioning that in the 809 contract, the pta809 contract of Zheng Shangsuo still maintains a position of about 90000 hands. Based on a unilateral calculation of 5 tons/hand, Zheng Shangsuo needs to deliver more than 200000 tons of spot goods. According to the PTA inventory of Zheng Shangsuo on the 4th, the number of registered warehouse receipts was 29315, and the effective forecast was 16959, with a total deliverable volume of 230000 tons. Therefore, if the Bulls really want to receive the spot, the exchange can still deal with it. But it is the 809 contract that makes the current trend of 0811 a little confused

international crude oil market

in late August, due to the news that the Gulf of Mexico will be hit by Hurricane Gustav, the international oil price rose steadily. On the 28th, NYMEX October futures prices surged to $120.43/barrel. However, recently, with Gustav gradually weakening, poor European economic data released to support the dollar rebound and other negative factors, under the pressure of international oil prices, working under these conditions will cause the tightening machine to damage the business, At present, nymex-10 has fallen below $110/barrel. The sharp fall in international oil prices has dealt a heavy blow to PTA

upstream related industry quotation

1. PX Market:

as the most important raw material of PTA, PX price trend directly affects PTA. After entering the middle of August, the stabilization of PX price and the continuous negative decline of MX price directly caused the widening of the price difference between PX and MX, rising to 198.75 dollars/ton from the lowest price difference of 155 dollars/ton on July 30. PX manufacturers' profits also rebounded to a considerable level. Based on the 91% MX to PX conversion rate, the gross profit per ton of PX rebounded to $83.41/ton, while the low point of the year occurred on July 25, when the gross profit per ton of PX was $26.70/ton. However, compared with the profit level of PTA enterprises that lose one ton per ton of production, the gross profit of PX per ton is $83.41, which can be called a huge profit

in the past, because PTA enterprises mostly relied on foreign investors for PX supply, PTA enterprises were obviously in a weak position in terms of bargaining power. However, combined with the decline of peripheral crude oil, the PTA joint production reduction since July this year did not have a substantial pulling effect on the sales price, but unexpectedly hit the PX price hard. In just two months, the spot price of PX plummeted to $250/ton. At present, PX in Asia is quoted at US $1270 FOB South Korea, and PX in Europe is quoted at US $FOB Rotterdam

on the whole, although the impact of the crude oil market on the PX market is now less than that of the downstream PTA and polyester markets, the sharp decline in the price of crude oil, especially naphtha, still has a great impact on the market mentality. The demand in the downstream PX market is sluggish. Therefore, in the short term, the situation of the Asian PX market to avoid being injured by the electrified wires or components exposed internally is still weak

2. MEG Market:

meg, as another main raw material affecting PTA production cost, has little impact on PTA market because its proportion is only about 28%. MEG prices continued to fall sharply in August, with the lowest falling below 7000 yuan. At present, sellers in the East China market are unable to ship goods. Large orders are negotiated at yuan/ton, while small orders are at yuan/ton. Market transactions are dominated by small ones. The price of the outer market fell. The buyer's inquiry for the shipment in September was $880/ton CFR China l/c90 days and below, and the negotiation intention was around $885/ton. Some sellers' intention to ship was enhanced, and the buyer's inquiry was light

analyzing the current market, the positive aspects: (1) on July 30, the Ministry of Commerce issued the decision to increase the export tax rebate of some textiles in China. (2) Affected by the Olympic Games, Beijing Orient may continue parking for up to months. (3) The South Asia plant in Taiwan has been overhauled in turn since last week, with a duration of about 60 days and an estimated loss of 120000 tons. (4) At present, the cost of holding goods for domestic traders is high, and some of them have been bonded and have not been put into the market. (5) MEG prices are at the lowest level in the past two years, and the operators are not in a hurry to take the goods. Most traders have reduced their shipping intentions, especially large orders. (6) Polyester production and sales have entered the peak season

bad aspects: (1) the polyester production and marketing rate is low, and the demand of downstream factories is slow. (2) China's ports are in sufficient supply, and the inventory of spot goods and bonded goods is high. (3) The exchange rate adjustment has a great impact on China's import and export traders, and the appreciation of the RMB has inhibited China's textile exports (4) South Korea and Saudi Arabia have carried out very decadent production prospects, and the devices that will be put into production will increase the supply of Asian markets. (5) The remaining spare storage capacity of ethylene glycol storage tank in the reservoir area is small, and it can basically reach every industry after testing. The arrival storage during the service life is still a problem. (6) Early low positions of the industry has been arbitrage space

although traders who cover their positions in the early stage have had arbitrage space, most of them still haven't solved the arbitrage after sharing the costs, so there is little room for the market to fall, but the imbalance between supply and demand and the cash out of some businesses may lead the market to continue to decline

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