PTA after the festival is expected to usher in a "good start"
due to the downstream entering the pre Festival stock cycle, coupled with the market liquidity tightening situation is expected to ease, PTA short-term prices still have rebound momentum. But in the middle line, as the downstream enters the off-season, polyester profits shrink, leading to the maintenance expectations of some manufacturers. Considering factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, traders' continued participation in the hype is not strong, and PTA futures prices will still remain volatile. From the point of time, the theme concept of preparing materials before the festival is still possible to continue, but near the Spring Festival, the market sustainability is not very strong, and the possibility of a large-scale market is unlikely, so we need to wait for further guidance from the fundamentals
before the holiday, PTA futures market confidence recovered. We believe that PTA futures prices still have rebound momentum in the short term and are expected to make a good start after the festival, but from the perspective of the middle line, they will still maintain the oscillation grid and await further guidance from fundamentals
first, the economic performance of Europe and the United States is very different, and the tightening situation of domestic liquidity is expected to gradually ease
at present, the U.S. economy is continuing to recover moderately. The sovereign debt crisis of European countries is still an indelible shadow, and the debt of the euro zone is growing like a snowball. From the perspective of debt maturity, the first quarter of 2011 is undoubtedly the peak of debt repayment, with Germany, France and Italy bearing the brunt, which may cause concern in the market
domestically, the boots of interest rate hikes have landed, and the momentum of price inflation has been curbed in the short term, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. On the other hand, the release of fiscal deposits, the maturity of central bank bills and repurchase, together with the end of the bank's year-end assessment and other factors, will make the banking system more liquid in the first quarter of this year. If the open market operation tools cannot continue to play a role, it is expected that there will be another liquidity peak in January and February
however, inflation will still force the central bank to make a difference. The central bank will still introduce a series of portfolio policies in the later stage, and the expectation of policy tightening still exists
in general, domestic related commodities will remain under pressure in the medium and long term
second, the center of gravity of oil price continues to rise, and the supporting role of PX still exists.
a public opinion survey conducted by Shandong Radio and television station, NYMEX crude oil futures price stood at $90/barrel again before the holiday. The progress of crude oil destocking will determine the height of oil price rebound, and the trend of the US dollar is the dominant factor in the recent crude oil market. In terms of funds, CFTC data shows that the net long position of the fund is still more than 160000 hands, which is a high level in the year, and funds are still optimistic about crude oil. Stimulated by China's strong demand, the focus of future oil prices will continue to rise, thus forming a certain support for energy chemicals
pta industrial chain, since December last year, crude oil prices have continued to rise, naphtha and PX prices have risen, and the supporting effect of naphtha and PX on PTA has strengthened. At present, naphtha prices in Asia have fluctuated higher, with the price focus approaching us $880/ton, and the PX quotation on the spot market is also steadily moving towards us $1400/ton. In 2011, only one million tons of aromatics combined unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was put into operation, and the production capacity of PTA will exceed 3million tons, so the market may be tight again. Therefore, in the short term, the PX strong grid is expected to continue in the short term, which will play a certain supporting role for PTA
III. PTA supply and demand is good, and there is a stock demand for polyester plant
PTA plant started well last December. From the perspective of new devices, although II. Common fault status: the experimental instrument can not reach the rated value, the new capacity will be put into operation faster in 2011, but from the first half of the year, only the 800000 ton devices of Hanbang and 700000 ton devices of Yisheng Petrochemical will be put into operation, while the polyester device will be put into operation faster in the same period, which will, to a certain extent, lead to the expectation of tight supply in the PTA spot market in the first half of the year. Polyester users also established positions in advance for the Spring Festival holiday from late December last year to early January this year. In addition, the current PTA social inventory is still not high as a whole, and most PTA suppliers have very short clearing time and low inventory; Traders' positions are also generally low due to market differences. On the whole, the current market supply and demand pattern is still good
IV. the downstream prepares goods in advance, and the profit reduction will lead to the decline of polyester start-up.
in December last year, various varieties of polyester filament continued to fall to the level of early November, and the downstream pre holiday stock demand was driven by the expected rise in raw materials
although the current downstream weaving start-up department is still maintained at a certain level, supermarket plastic bags are purchased from regular manufacturers, but the Spring Festival is approaching, the comprehensive start-up rate cannot be expected to be too high, and the traditional off-season will always come with the Spring Festival approaching. For polyester factories, maintaining relatively stable or slightly higher production and sales and reducing inventory before the spring festival may be their core operation idea under the background of maintaining or not losing profits, so it is difficult for silk prices to rise significantly. On the other hand, recently, the price of polyester products, especially polyester yarn, is gradually changing from demand driven style to current cost driven style. The recent improvement of polyester products such as polyester fiber not only reflects the rigid demand in part, but also the cost transfer after the rise of polyester raw material cost, which is particularly prominent for polyester chips and some polyester fiber varieties at the break even point. As it is difficult for the silk price to rise significantly in the near future, once the cost pressure caused by the rise of raw materials cannot be transferred, the profit of polyester plant will shrink rapidly, and the commencement will also be affected. Since late December, the commencement of polyester plant has fallen from 84% at the beginning of the month to 73.8% at the end of the month, which is the best example
in a word, PTA still has rebound momentum in the short term, but the middle line will maintain an oscillation trend
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